EU elections: Final poll shows race still uncertain in France (2024)

The European election campaign is drawing to a close, but everything remains open for the vote on Sunday, June 9. Things were still moving, and fast, according to an IPSOS poll for Le Monde, carried out on Thursday and Friday among a representative sample of 8,923 people, using the quota sampling method.

In these final days of the campaign, respondents confirmed that Jordan Bardella, the lead candidate of the far-right Rassemblement National, was leading the race, with 32% voting intentions (margin of error: 1.3 points), albeit down one percentage point on our previous survey at the end of May. Valérie Hayer, the lead candidate for President Emmanuel Macron's coalition, continued to lose points, down one point to 15% of voting intentions (margin of error: 1). The gap between her and Raphaël Glucksmann, the lead candidate backed by the Socialists, was just 0.5 points, with Glucksmann's numbers are stable at 14.5% (margin of error: 1). "We've never seen such a narrow gap between these two candidates," said Brice Teinturier, deputy director general of IPSOS.

Behind this trio, the radical left party La France Insoumise (LFI), led by Manon Aubry, continued to build on an upward trend set in motion last month, with a significant acceleration in the final stretch: It gained 1.5 points since the end of May, coming it at 9.5% of voting intentions (margin of error: 0.8).

Next came the conservatives of Les Républicains (LR), led by François-Xavier Bellamy, with a stable score of 7% (margin of error: 0.7). Behind LR were two lists in danger of falling below the 5% threshold required to win seats at the European Parliament. The far-right Reconquête! party, led by Marion Maréchal, polled at 5.5% of voting intentions, while the Greens list, led by Marie Toussaint, came in at 5% (margin of error for both: 0.6).

Léon Deffontaines, leading the Communists, was estimated at 2.5% of voting intentions (margin of error: 0.4), tied with the small animal rights party, the Parti Animaliste, which rose by one point in one week.

Voters who were hesitant about their choice could still change the finishing order and the composition of the French delegation to the European Parliament. Taking into account voters' uncertainty, Maréchal was estimated to score in a range between 4.5 and 6.5%, and the Greens' Toussaint between 4 and 6%. Potential voters for the Greens remain the most hesitant about their choice, with 40% saying they might still change their mind, and their second choices turning first to Glucksmann and Aubry. Compared with the end of May, Toussaint continued to fall (down one percentage point), and her closeness to the 5% threshold did not appear to be triggering a renewed mobilization for the Green ballot, at least not one visible at this stage in our survey.

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